Assalamualakum w.b.t

Sudah saksikan wawancara Najib dalam program Isu Semasa Khas Bersama YAB di Angkasapuri ? Jika tidak berpeluang sila lihat Wawancara Timbalan Perdana Menteri Mengenai Isu Kenaikan Minyak dan cuba amati apa yang dijawab oleh Najib tentang isu kenaikan harga minyak di Malaysia sekarang ini.

Bagi saya sememangnya Najib menerangkan bahawa kenaikan harga minyak di Malaysia perlu memandangkan kenaikan harga minyak dunia. Namun seperti biasa Najib tidak menerangkan situasi keseluruhan tentang kenapa iklim minyak dunia "sakit" mutakhir ini.

Sekarang saya cuba rumuskan apa yang disuarakan oleh Najib dalam wawancara tersebut.

1. Kenaikan perlu kerana kadar harga minyak dunia cecah US Dollar 62 setong atau se-barrel.
2. Malaysia adalah Net Exporter minyak yang kecil. Pengeluaran minyak Malaysia adalah berpurata 650,000 barrel per day. (Namun dari apa yang saya tahu dari sumber sebenar Petronas, pengeluaran Malaysia adalah 680,000 barrel per day)
3. Presiden Petronas (Tan Sri Mohd Hassan Marican), berkata kemungkinan menjelang tahun 2010, maknanya dalam masa 4 tahun lagi kalau trend penggunaan petrol dalam negara terus meningkat ,kita akan menjadi net importer. Jadi pelaburan perlu difokuskan pada pembangunan untuk cari telaga minyak baru untuk generasi akan datang.

Pandangan untuk Isu (1).

Untuk isu (1), seperti yang saya nyatakan dalam artikel "Kisah Sebenar disebalik kenaikan harga minyak di Malaysia Kini ", fokus spekulator minyak dunia mutakhir ini adalah berpusat kepada Isu perkayaan Uranium Iran dan isu penculikan dan pengeboman di telaga minyak Nigeria. Isu pengeboman berani mati oleh pengganas di Kingdom's Abqaiq Refining Center Arab Saudi telah dilaporkan oleh sumber AMEinfo.com bahawa ia tidak menggugat kadar pengeluaran minyak di Saudi, jadi para spekulator lebih fokuskan kepada 2 isu yang lebih berisiko iaitu di Nigeria dan Iran.

Menurut sumber Bloomberg, Duta U.S ke International Atomic Energy Agency semalam menyatakan bahawa rancangan Iran untuk perkayaan Uraniumpada skala besar adalah sesuatu yang "tidak aman".

Malah Broker ADM Investor Services International di London menyatakan,

"The Iran-Russia basic agreement is weak, particularly because Iran said they would refuse to give up the right to enrich uranium on their own soil".

Malah serangan pemberontak pada 18 Februari lalu terhadap terminal pengeksportan minyak terbesar Nigeria, Forcados platform, memaksa Royal Dutch Shell Plc. memberhentikan pengepaman minyak sebanyak 455,000 barrel sehari. Pihak militan juga mengamcam untuk meluaskan penentangan dan seterusnya memotong 30 peratus output dari pengeluar terbesar minyak di Afrika itu.

Menurut analisa Citigroup Inc.,iaitu James Neale dan Jonathan Wright semalam, ancaman kepada industri minyak di Nigeria itu akan berterusan sepanjang 2006 kerana pilihanraya president akan diadakan tahun depan.

Satu lagi kebimbangan "wajib" yang tidak berkesudahan kini adalah tentang perkembangan politik Iraq. Faktor ini merupakan suatu yang rutin kepada kenaikan minyak dunia sejak kejatuhan rejim saddam lagi. Malah inilah sebabnya harga minyak dunia berada pada tahap US Dollar 60 sebarrel. Faktor ini jugalah menyebabkan harga minyak di Malaysia telah dinaikkan sebelum ini.

Sesungguhnya pengeluaran minyak Iraq terus menurun selagi hura-hara berterusan di sana. Output Iraq jatuh kepada 1.53 juta barrel sehari bulan lalu disebabkan tindakan sabotaj dan kurangnya pelaburan, kejatuhan itu adalah yang paling rendah semenjak Ogos 2003, 5 bulan sebelum penaklukan Amerika Syarikat dahulu.

Jika kita amati pandangan Najib Tun Razak, kerajaan mengambil risiko dengan kenaikan 30 sen itu, namun jika harga minyak terus meningkat, kerajaan tidak akan menaikkan lagi harga minyak di Malaysia. Tetapi harga yang diramal oleh juak-juak Najib sekiranya harga minyak dunia mencecah US Dollar 70 atau 80 se-barrel ! Apa kata isu di Nigeria serta Iran beransur pulih dan keadaan harga minyak dunia terus seimbang pada angka US Dollar 60 sehingga 65 se-barrel pada tahun ini dan seterusnya kembali normal pada US Dollar 60 se-barrel selepas isu Nigeria berakhir tahun depan, adakah kemungkinan Malaysia menarik balik kenaikan harga minyak di Malaysia ?

Berdasarkan trend kenaikan harga minyak Malaysia, tidak pernah sekalipun harga minyak di Malaysia mengalami penurunan, walaupun harga minyak dunia pernah juga turun !

Pandangan Untuk Isu (2).

Walaupun Malaysia adalah Net Exporter yang kecil, mutu minyak Malaysia adalah yang paling rendah kandungan sulfur. Ini menunjukkan minyak Malaysia agak bermutu dan dijual agak mahal. Jadi tidak hairanlah

"Petronas mencatatkan keuntungan RM35.5 billion pada tahun kewangan 2004 sehingga 2005.Dimana keuntungan itu tidak termasuk RM3.12 billion yang dibayar kepada kerajaan dalam bentuk cukai,duti dan pembayaran royalti." "Dijangkakan bagi tahun berakhir 2005 sehingga 2006, pendapatan akan mencecah RM50 billion"

Selain itu, Petronas juga mempunyai carigali minyak di beberapa buah negara seperti Sudan, yemen dan sebagainya. Berikut adalah Operasi Antarabangsa Petronas;

1. ALGERIA UPSTREAM: Exploration & Production i. Interest in onshore Block 401C Partners: Amerada Hess (Operator) Status: Exploration 2. ANGOLA UPSTREAM: Exploration & Production i. Interest in Deepwater Block 24 Partners: Ocean Energy (Operator) and Sonangol P & P Status: Exploration 3. ARGENTINA DOWNSTREAM: Gas Pipeline Network i. Interest in two major high pressure gas transmission pipelines in Argentina, Transportadora de Gas Del Norte S.A. (TGN) and Transportadora de Gas Del Mercosur S.A. (TGM). 4. AUSTRALIA DOWNSTREAM: Gas Pipeline Network i. Interest in the Australian portion of the Papua New Guinea-Queensland Gas Pipeline. Partner: Australian Gas Light Company Status: Expected to deliver gas to customers by mid-2009 ii. Interest in Australian Pipeline Trust which owns over 7,500 km of pipelines and a 25% share of the natural gas market in Australia. iii. Provide gas transmission marketing services for two pipeline systems owned by Australian Pipeline Trust -- a 2,026 km Moomba - Sydney Pipeline and a 255 km Central West Pipeline -- through its wholly-owned subsidiary East Australian Pipeline Marketing. iv. Interest in Gasnet, a gas transmission pipeline company in Victoria. 5. BENIN UPSTREAM: Exploration & Production i. Interest in Block 4 Partner: Kerr McGee (Operator) Status: Exploration 6. CAMBODIA DOWNSTREAM: Product Retailing & Marketing i. Retailing and marketing of petroleum products. ii. Operates a 7,000 metric ton of petroleum products storage since 1998. 7. CAMEROON UPSTREAM: Exploration & Production i. Interest in Block PH 77 Partner: Philips (Operator) Status: Exploration DOWNSTREAM: Chad-Cameroon Pipeline i. Constructed the 900 km of the 1,070 km pipeline from oil fields in southern Chad to the coast of Cameroon. Partners: ExxonMobil, ChevronTexaco, Cameroon Government and Chad Government Status: Operational 8. CHAD UPSTREAM: Exploration & Production i. Interest in Doba Three-Field Development (Oil fields: Miandoum, Bolobo and Komé) Partners: Esso Exploration and Production Chad, Inc. (Operator) and Chevron Texaco Status: Production of oil started in mid-2003. ii. Interest in Permit H (Doba, Doseo and Lake Chad Basins) Partners: Esso Exploration and Production Chad, Inc. (Operator) and Chevron Texaco Status: Exploration DOWNSTREAM: Chad-Cameroon Pipeline i. Constructed the 170 km of the 1,070 km pipeline from oil fields in southern Chad to the coast of Cameroon. Partners: ExxonMobil, ChevronTexaco and Chad Government Status: Operational 9. CHINA DOWNSTREAM: i. Joint venture in LPG terminalling, bottling and distribution in Jiangsu Province. Partner: China Offshore Oil Donghai Co. Ltd. Status: Operational ii. Marketing of petroleum products in Hong Kong, Macau and Southern China. 10. EGYPT UPSTREAM: Exploration & Production i. Interest in North East Mediterranean Deepwater (Nemed) Oil and Gas Block Partners: Shell Egypt Deepwater (Operator) Status: Exploration ii. Interest in West Delta Deep Marine (WDDM) Concession Partner: BG International (Operator) and Egyptian General Petroleum Co. (EGPC) Status: Exploration, development and production iii. Interest in Western Desert Block Partner: Tharwa (Operator), Shell Egypt Status: Exploration iv. Interest in El Burg Block Partner: British Gas (Operator) Status: Exploration DOWNSTREAM: i. Interest in Egyptian LNG Project, involved in the development and operation of LNG liquefaction plant and the related infrastructure. Partners: BG Group, Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Co., EGPC and Gaz De France Status: Completion of Train 1 in May 2005 11. EQUATORIAL GUINEA UPSTREAM: Exploration & Production i. Interest in Block N, offshore Corisco Bay Partners: Ocean Equatorial Guinea Corporation, Vanco Equatorial Guinea and GEPetrol. Status: Exploration ii. Interest in Block P, Rio Muni Basin Partners: Ocean Equatorial Guinea Corporation (Operator), GEPetrol, Atlas Petroleum (International) Ltd. and DNO ASA Status: Exploration 12. ETHIOPIA UPSTREAM: Exploration & Production i. Interest in Block G, Gambela Basin Status: Exploration 13. GABON UPSTREAM: Exploration & Production i. Interest in Moabi and Nguma Permits Partners: Amerada Hess Production Gabon (Operator) and Mitsubishi Petroleum Development Corp. Status: Exploration 14. INDIA DOWNSTREAM: i. Joint venture to import LPG at Haldia for marketing in East India. Also provides LPG terminalling service. Partner: Indian Oil Corporation Ltd Status: Operational 15. INDONESIA UPSTREAM: Exploration & Production: i. Interest in Ketapang Block, offshore East Java Partners: ConocoPhilips (Operator) Status: Exploration ii. Interest in Tanjung Aru Block, offshore Kalimantan Partner: Amerada Hess (Operator) and PERTAMINA and Unocal Status: Exploration iii. Interest in Karapan Block, offshore East Java, through a joint venture company, PETRONAS Carigali RIMS Joint Operating Company Ltd. Partner: RIMS Energy Karapan Ltd. Under joint operatorship Status: Exploration iv. Interest in Jabung Block, onshore South Sumatra Partners: PetroChina (Operator) and PERTAMINA Status: Exploration, development and production v. Interest in Tanjung Jabung Partner: Wirabuana Group Status: Exploration vi. Interest in Natuna Sea Block A Partners: Kufpec, Premier (Operator) and Amerada Hess Status: Production vii. Interest in North East Madura Offshore Block IV Status : Exploration viii. Interest in Madura Offshore Partners: Santos (Operator) Status : Exploration and development ix. Interest in Muriah Block Status : Exploration DOWNSTREAM: Gas Pipeline Network i. Interest in P.T. Transportasi Gas Indonesia (TGI) through a joint venture company, Transasia Pipeline Company Pvt. Ltd. Partners: CONOCO Indonesia Holdings Ltd, SPC Indo-Pipeline Co. Ltd. and Talisman Transgasindo Ltd. Status: TGI currently owns and operates two gas pipelines in Sumatra: i. Grissik-Duri pipeline, which runs from the Corridor Block gas plant to the Duri Oil field. ii. Grissik-Batam-Singapore pipeline, transporting gas from three gas plants -- Corridor Block, South Jambi B and Jabung Block -- to Singapore. Product Retailing & Marketing i. Marketing of petroleum products 16. IRAN UPSTREAM: Exploration & Production i. Interest in Sirri A and E offshore oil fields. Partners: Total. NIOC (operator) Status: Production of oil started in 1998 ii. Interest in South Pars Gas Development project, phases 2 & 3. Partners: Total (Operator), Gazprom Status: Production of gas started in 2002 iii. Interest in Munir Block. Partners: Edison International (Operator) and Lundin (Munir) Ltd. Status: Exploration 17 . MAURITANIA UPSTREAM: Exploration & Production i. Interest in Block 6 located northwest of Nouakchott. Partners: Woodside Mauritania Pty Ltd (Operator), Hardman Resources Ltd, and ROC Oil. Status: Exploration 18. MOROCCO UPSTREAM: Exploration & Production i. Interest in Tiznit Block Partners: Energy Africa (Operator), Taurus and ONAREP Status: Exploration ii. Interest in offshore Rabat-Sale Haut Mer Block Partner: ONAREP Status: Exploration 19. MOZAMBIQUE UPSTREAM: Exploration & Production i. Interest in offshore Zambezi Delta Block Partner: Empresa Nacional de Hidrocarbonetos de Moçambique (ENH) Status: Exploration 20. MYANMAR UPSTREAM: Exploration & Production i. Interest in Yetagun Gas Project (Blocks M-12, M-13, M-14 and Taninthayi Pipeline Co LLC which operates a cross-border pipeline transporting gas from the Yetagun Gas field to Thailand). Partners: Nippon Oil Exploration (Myanmar) Ltd, Petroleum Authority of Thailand E&P International and Myanmar Oil and Gas Enterprise Status: Production started in 2000. ii. Interest in Blocks M-15, M-16, M-17 and M-18, offshore southern Myanmar. Status: Exploration 21. NIGER UPSTREAM: Exploration & Production Interest in Agadem Block Partner: ExxonMobil Status: Exploration 22. PAKISTAN UPSTREAM: Exploration & Production i. Interest in onshore Mubarak Block, Sindh Province. Completed the construction of Rehmat Gas Plant which is now supplying processed gas to the pipeline and the refinery. Partners: ENI and Government Holdings of Pakistan. Status: Exploration and production ii. Interest in onshore Mehar Block, Sindh/Balochistan provinces. Partners: Orient Petroleum Inc (OPI), Zaver Petroleum and Government Holdings of Pakistan Status: Exploration 23. PHILIPPINES UPSTREAM: Exploration & Production i. Interest in Mindoro Block Partners: Philippines National Oil Company (PNOC) Status: Exploration DOWNSTREAM: i. Joint venture in Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) terminalling, bottling and distribution in Mindanao. Partners: Alcantara Consolidated Resources Inc and Masalingan Inc Status: Operational 24. SOUTH AFRICA DOWNSTREAM: Refining & Product Retailing: i. Interest in Engen Ltd. Status: Engen owns and operates a refinery in Durban and has more than 1,250 service stations in Southern Africa. 25. SUDAN UPSTREAM: Exploration & Production i. Interest in Blocks 1, 2 and 4 through a joint venture company, Greater Nile Petroleum Operating Company Ltd (GNPOC). Partners: China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), ONGC Videsh and Sudapet (Sudan's National Oil Company). Under joint operatorship. Status: Production started in June 1999. ii. Interest in Block 5A Partners: OMV and Sudapet Status: Exploration and development iii. Interest in Block 5B Partners: IPC Sudan Ltd, OMV and Sudapet Status: Exploration iv. Interest in Blocks 3 & 7 through a joint venture company, PETRODAR Operating Company Ltd. Partners: CNPC, Sudapet, Gulf Petroleum Corp. (GPSC) and Al-Thani. Under joint operatorship. Status: Exploration and development v. Interest in Blocks 8 Partners: Sudapet and High Tech Group. Joint operatorship by PETRONAS Carigali Overseas and Sudapet. Status: Exploration DOWNSTREAM: Product Retailing & Marketing i. Operates service stations and markets petroleum products. ii. Owns and operates bulk terminals, depots, aviation depots and bunkering facility. 26. SWITZERLAND Engineering Interest in Sauber PETRONAS Engineering AG Partner: Sauber Motorsport AG Status: Undertakes technical research and development activities in the field of automotive engineering technology. The company develops the engine for the Sauber PETRONAS Formula One Racing Team. DOWNSTREAM: Product Retailing & Marketing i. Marketing of petroleum products 27. THAILAND DOWNSTREAM: Product Retailing & Marketing i. Operates service stations and markets petroleum products. 28. TURKMENISTAN UPSTREAM: Exploration & Production i. Production sharing contractor for Block 1, South Caspian Sea. Status: Further exploration and development. Three discovered oil/gas fields in Apsheran Sill. Discovered oil and gas reserves in the Turkmen sector of the Caspian Sea through the East Livanov-2A well. 29. UNITED KINGDOM DOWNSTREAM: LNG Terminal i. Interest in Dragon LNG Partners: BG Group and Petroplus Status: Development of LNG terminal and related facilities in Milford Haven, Wales. The terminal is scheduled to start operation by 2007. 30. VIETNAM UPSTREAM: Exploration & Production i. Operates offshore Blocks 01 and 02 Partner: PetroVietnam Exploration & Production Company (PVEP) Status: Developing Ruby, Emerald and Topaz oil fields. The Ruby field started production in late 1998. ii. Interest in Blocks 10 and 11.1 through a joint venture company, Con Son Joint Operating Company. Partners: PetroVietnam Investment and Development Company (PIDC) and PERTAMINA. Under joint operatorship. Status: Exploration iii. Interest in Block 46-Cai Nuoc Partners: Talisman (Operator) and PIDC Status: Exploration, development and production iv. Interest in Block 46/02 through a joint venture company, Truong Son Joint Operating Company. Partners: PVEP and Talisman Vietnam Ltd. Under joint operatorship. Status: Exploration v. Interest in Blocks 01/97 and 02/97 through a joint venture company, Lam Son Joint Operating Company. Partners: PVEP. Under joint operatorship. Status: Exploration vi. Interest in Blocks 102 & 106 Partners: ATI Petroleum Inc (ATIP), PIDC and SPC Vietnam (Blocks 102/106) Co. Ltd. (SPV) Status: Exploration DOWNSTREAM: i. Joint venture in LPG terminalling, bottling and distribution - Thang Long LPG JV Co. Partner: PetroVietnam Gas Corp Status: Operational Petrochemicals i. Interest in a polyvinyl chloride plant in Vung Tau under a joint venture company, Phu My Plastics and Chemicals Co. Ltd. (PMPC). Partners: PetroVietnam Gas Corp and Tramatsuco Status: Operational 31. YEMEN UPSTREAM: Exploration & Production i. Interest in onshore Block 52 Partners: Ansan Wikfs and Yemen Corp Status: Exploration

Hampir 31 negara yang dijadikan tempat oleh Petronas untuk mencari hasil petroleum dan gas ! Hasil itu akan di'import' ke Malaysia. Namun apa yang diimport itu adalah apa yang dimiliki Malaysia !

Pandangan Untuk Isu (3).

Najib menyatakan dalam temubual semalam bahawa

"Presiden Petronas (Tan Sri Mohd Hassan Marican), berkata kemungkinan menjelang tahun 2010, maknanya dalam masa 4 tahun lagi kalau trend penggunaan petrol dalam negara terus meningkat ,kita akan menjadi net importer"

Seperti yang saya nyatakan tadi kita import apa yang telah kita korek hasil petroleum dan gas dari 31 buah negara yang telah saya nyatakan tadi.

Ini ditambah lagi, Malaysia bakal mengeluarkan biodiesel secara rasmi pada tahun depan. Jadi apa salahnya memfokuskan kepada teknologi biodiesel jika benarlah ia akan dihasilkan oleh Malaysia. Malah kereta proton juga perlu difokuskan kepada enjin yang mesra biodiesel ataupun Malaysia tidak yakin dengan pasaran biodiesel di dunia ?

"Kamon Najib, tak boleh fikir secara alternatif ke..?"